Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. They composes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has has something to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
