🔗 Share this article An Forecasting Platform Trader Earned $Nearly Half a Million on Bets Predicting the Ouster of Maduro. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. A bettor earned a substantial sum on the ouster of the Venezuelan leader immediately preceding it was made public, leading to inquiries about the possibility of profiting from non-public details of the event. Changing Odds in Predictions Bets placed on the crypto-platform, a blockchain-based service, that Nicolás Maduro would be out of power by the month's conclusion surged in the time leading up to President Donald Trump stated on Saturday that the president had been taken into custody. A single trader, which became a member last month and took four positions, all on Venezuela, profited a total of $nearly half a million from a starting bet of $32,537. The identity is unknown. The user had only a string of letters and numbers for identification. Market Signals Before Announcement Platform data shows that participants assessed the probability of the president's removal at just 6.5% in the afternoon of Friday, January 2nd. However these probabilities had climbed to 11% by late Friday night and spiked dramatically in the early hours of January 3rd, pointing to a rapid movement in positions right before the official statement was made. "This particular bet has all the characteristics of a trade based on non-public details," said a financial reform advocate. Several of other individuals also profited large payouts from similar wagers. Legal Questions Intensifies Elected officials are growing concerned. A bill introduced on the start of the week aims to prohibit federal workers from placing bets on forecasting platforms if they have "confidential government knowledge" related to a market. Market Background Forecasting platforms have become increasingly popular in the past few years, with participants able to wager on everything from elections to politics. This sector faced scrutiny under the Biden administration. However it has experienced less resistance during the current presidency. Insider trading is against the law in the stock market, but there are less oversight in the event betting industry. A spokesperson for another major platform said their site "has clear rules against trading on insider information of any form."