Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably provided by allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.
